ESPOSITO, Elena, 2007. Die Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität. Frankfurt am Main: Suhrkamp. Edition Suhrkamp, 2485. ISBN 978-3-518-12485-7.
Reviewed by Stefan Meißner academia 
Elena Esposito's essay on the parallelism of "fiction" and probability theory begins with the assumption that their simultaneous emergence is not coincidental, but "that in the 17th century a historically novel relationship to reality emerged, indeed that here," she continues, "for the first time that doubling of reality became experiential, which is typical of modern societies" (p. 8). This describes in a few words the problem that the author deals with in the next one hundred pages using system-theoretical means of thinking, but nevertheless in a way that is easy to read.
Starting from the premise that something can only ever be designated if it is distinguished from everything else, that is, that reality can only be spoken of if reality is distinguished from something else, the author is preferably concerned with 'fiction' and 'probability' as two candidates for designating the other side of the distinction. The questions to be asked then are obvious: How is their relationship to be determined, what (conceptual) historical changes can be observed, and what does this mean for our present - one should add: modern - understanding of reality and reality?
With the beginning of modernity (according to Koselleck's thesis, among others), the space of experience and the horizon of expectation diverge. Experiences made can no longer be projected directly onto an expected future. In this respect, the future becomes uncertain - or to put it more precisely: it is experienced contingently, i.e. neither as necessary nor as impossible. This is the central formula of the modern world-relationship - there is neither orientation by traditions or auctoritas, nor is there any possibility of predicting the future. All this changes at the very time when both the modern novel is invented and probability theory comes to light. Both are reactions to the emergence of modern conditions. While the modern novel presents a 'fictional reality' "so plausible that it could be true" (p. 13), probability theory presents a 'real fiction' in that it offers predictions about the future of a world imagined as uncertain.
The novel and probability theory are thus two cases of the special relationship between reality and non-reality in modernity. This also addresses the central theme of the essay - for in what follows we learn little, and then mostly nothing new, about the emergence of probability theory or the modern novel. But the disappointment about this is limited, since the reader learns all the more about the current understanding of fiction, probability, and reality, such as: "Reality is improbable, and that's the problem." (S. 50)
Such sentences initially contradict all everyday plausibility, because reality, it seems to us, is downright frighteningly probable. Esposito, however, manages to shake this quasi-certainty with the help of recourse to historically different conceptions of the relationship between reality and the non-real, and thus serves almost as a tempting invitation to leave one's own thinking routines and to occupy oneself for a few hours with other possibilities of thinking. This is the real strength of this essay. It offers little that is materially new for both the (systems) theory-trained and the historically educated reader, but it does help one to think - and that is sometimes worth more than being presented with something new.
Because - to return to the example - why is reality improbable?
Simple answer: If it were probable, it would be calculable. But it is not. So far so trivial, but how do we manage to deal with a highly complex, non-computable reality? Esposito's first part of the answer - just by the way, Niklas Luhmann's answer would surely be similar - is that we would have learned to build up expectations towards future situations through fictions. The best example is the modern romance novel, in which the reader plays out certain possible situations that may come to him in future reality. Certainly, dime novels and the television soaps also aim in the same direction, namely to be prepared for future constellations - this is also hinted at in a short chapter on so-called "reality TV".
The second part of her answer is that we have learned to deal with probability. Probability could be described with Blumenberg as "appearance of truth". In the speech of appearance a semantic ambiguity is inscribed: "appearance as reflection, radiance, aura, shining through, representing and pointing the way on the one hand" and "appearance as empty pretension, misleading mirage, pretense, presumptuous creeping into the legitimate signature on the other hand".
This already refers semantically to the fictional character of probability and thus also of probability theory, because its premise of an equal probability of events is not to be found in reality, just as random draws (must) almost inevitably fail in reality. And yet, according to Esposito, learning can be done on the basis of probability: not, however, at the level of the future present, but rather at the level of the present future, i.e., the future as it presents itself in the present.
Thus, politicians learn daily from survey results which statements and actions have led to which changes, an army of market researchers is constantly studying consumer behavior, and every stockbroker calculates the figures and forecasts of companies. And all of them agree that they can know nothing about the future, but they can learn a great deal about the present by observing the forecasts about the present future.
This is because the current orientation is based less on current polls and share prices than on expectations of future election successes, future consumption trends or future share prices. This takes into account that both the expected electoral successes, consumption trends or stock prices may turn out differently and the expectations themselves may change. Orientation in contemporary modern society is thus highly fictional, and these fictions - and here again the modern novel and probability theory come together - act as a mirror in which society reflects its own contingency and thus learns to deal with the present future.
Esposito concludes her booklet with a few remarks on virtuality, currently probably the most prominent counterpart to reality. Thus, the essay can also be read in a different way than presented here, namely as a small exercise in the conditions of an increasingly 'virtual' society. ...
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MEISSNER, Stefan, 2008. Esposito, Elena (2007): Die Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität. in: fastforeword 1-08, S. 32-34. Online. 1 January 2008. [Accessed 30 January 2023]. Available from: https://www.academia.edu/4569391/Esposito_Elena_2007_Die_Fiktion_der_wahrscheinlichen_Realit%C3%A4tEsposito, Elena (2007): Die Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität
SPOERHASE, Carlos, 2009. Eine verpasste Chance [Elena Esposito, Die Fiktion der wahrscheinlichen Realität, 2007.]. JLTonline Reviews. Online. 5 March 2009. No. 0. [Accessed 30 January 2023]. Available from: http://www.jltonline.de/index.php/reviews/article/view/21
SPENCER-BROWN, George, 2008. Wahrscheinlichkeit und Wissenschaft. 2. Aufl. Heidelberg: Carl Auer Verl. ISBN 978-3-89670-626-3.