By analyzing Warning, as a seemingly remote but increasingly important aspect of social (and also political) action, this paper addresses the dilemmas of "forecasting" in sociology. Since warning encompasses more than the classical scientific forecast, namely – if successful – a self-annihilating Prediction, (1) practical and (2) logical problems arise.
First, practical problems are outlined: increasing societal risks with simultaneously interest-influenced warning systems, which together tend to reduce survival chances.
Second, it emerges that our analyses are hampered by the limitations of classical (Aristotelian) 2-valued logic, and some preliminary considerations for the use of multi-valued logics are suggested for this sensitive area. They could be useful to the logic of the social sciences as a whole.
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CLAUSEN, Lars and DOMBROWSKY, Wolf R., 1984. Warnpraxis und Warnlogik. Zeitschrift für Soziologie. Online. 1 August 1984. Vol. 13, no. 4, p. 293–307. [Accessed 19 December 2022]. DOI 10.1515/zfsoz-1984-0402.
TICKNOR, Jonathan L., 2013. A Bayesian regularized artificial neural network for stock market forecasting. Expert Systems with Applications. October 2013. Vol. 40, no. 14, p. 5501–5506. DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2013.04.013.