The object of corporate techno-lust. Changes from year to year.
Next Big Things through the years
The years are the approximate time that the concepts first entered into the front-pages of the IT press in more than one publication.
1962
1965
IBM OS/360 - Birth of the "modern" IBM mainframe
1975
VAX Mini Computer
1977
Microcomputer enters retail commercialization (3 main players: Apple Ii, Commodore PET, Tandy TRS-80 {Trash Eighty})
1980
CPM
Spreadsheets - The app that propelled microcomputers from hobbyist & niche tools into a common business tool
1982
IBM PC
1983
Oracle
dBASE (see Ex Base)
1984
Apple Macintosh - GUI's introduced to the mainstream
1985
1986
Novell Corporation PC networks
1991
Object Oriented Programming for GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces)
Use Net in academic and scientific settings
1992
Microsoft Windows 3.x - First Windows version that "sticks" (that is, crashes less than 4 times a day)
Visual Basic - Easily-grokkable GUI building for a wider audience of programmers
1994
Dial-up proprietary networks such as Compu Serve, Prodigy, and AOL.
1995
Re-engineering? - rework existing corporate applications
1996
1997
Java Language (billed as the "first computer language that moved the stock market") Arguably late 1996
1998
"Push" technology
Web-based everything
1999
2000
(Waiting around seeing if the market is really tanking or not)
2001
Peer-to-peer
Dot-com bankruptcies
2002
Gutting IT department to bare minimum
2003
Web services
International Outsourcing - Double blow to IT-worker confidence (with dot-com recession)
Apple Ipod (or MP3 players in general)
2004
Blogging
Wikis
Bit Torrent and other peer-to-peer file sharing frameworks
Social Networking (links, not file sharing)
2005
Wearable cell phones with Audio Recognition Dialing, gradually incorporating PDA/PIM and gaming features
Ad hoc networks (began years earlier, will explode in 2005) of both computers and non-computer consumer electronics
Wireless
Digital convergence (in consumer electronics)
I notice more chatter on Distributed Computing of late
2006
2007
REST - Representational State Transfer (www.ics.uci.edu 
)
2008
"Mashups" - Combining web widgets and services from different sources
Parallelism for multi-core processing (Parallel Need Scenario)
2009
RDBMS/SQL backlash, inspired/triggered largely by web-based data concerns - Record Based Database
Gesture Recognition - May have been triggered by iPhone popularity
2010
Multi Paradigm Programming acceptance - OOP dethroned as THE only way (Splash One One, Oopp Exploring The Multiparadigm Shift)
2011
Dead Tree Death Spiral - Quickly-dying technologies wreaking social havoc and confusion. Re: libraries, post-offices, bookstores, and newspapers. Propelled by combination of internet, ipads, and e-readers.
2013
2014
Node Js gets a lot of attention of late, whether it's real or hype or something in-between.
Mobile-friendly sites and/or content. (It's been gradually creeping up in importance.)
Those that were too gradual to place in a year or need more research
PDAs Personal Digital Assistant (Apple Newton? Palm Pilot? iPhone/Android? iPad?) - The popularity of these has been gradual but bumpy. Newton generated some mild hype, then it mellowed, then Palm Pilot did the same, then it mellowed, then Blackberry, then mellow, etc. Thus, a stair-step pattern in which portable devices do more over time. As of late 2011, desktop PC sales have grown roughly stagnant at the expense of pocket and flat devices.
laptop / notebook computers
UAV unmanned aerial vehicle (such as the military "Predator" UAV science.howstuffworks.com )
Research in unmanned land-based vehicles and robots appears to be accelerating also. Perhaps it's a general trend toward Robo War.
quantum computing
digital cameras - This is rather gradual, so hard to place in a year
"digital cash"
cell phones - gradual
Trans Meta - not doing very well of late
VoIP
Viruses/Anti-Virus
dual-core (dual processors ?)
Guesses for the the Next Big Thing in software:
I think:
Brains Asa Cheap Commodity (the end of software careers in the "developed" world)
I agree, but the thing after that is an expert system driven generator. About time that domain knowledge got systematized. Then we can stop worrying about bricks and get on with buildings. -- RIH.
Video Phones.
We'll have giant screens in our houses; we will be able to operate the camera, the image will be crystal-clear and this is where the fun starts: we'll have a new concept in our society: a virtual companionship. We'll be able to put a little camera on our forehead and our friend sitting at his computer anywhere in the world will be with us during our trip, our walking around in the house. He'll be our virtual companion.
Dig this: Grand-Pa in Detroit city will be able to accompany his son and his grand-daughter to the park, the circus, the swimming pool in Florida. We'll be in front of our screen and we'll be able to walk around with someone in Venice, New-York city, Rough and Ready Texas, anywhere. Those walking around with a camera will have a virtual companion with them.
Have I seen this before in real life? Yes circa 1992. The ever inventive funny guy Dave Letterman was sending a camera crew on the street to look for Swedish women. Dave was able to talk to them while remaining in his studio. I am sure this is an indication of things to come in the next ten years.
The bad part? More and more people will live as hermits. See the Belgian movie "Thomas is in love"; the guy suffers from agoraphobia and hasn't gone out since 8 years. He communicates through videophone exclusively, he has his food delivered to his house, he does cyber sex. The most interesting part: he is very together, more together than those who go out...
Right now it seems to be all things with the word "Enterprise" in 'em. (Enterprise Application)
This is not a coincidence; it's the result of a carefully coordinated marketing campaign begun by Desi Lu studios in 1965.
:-) :-) :-) --Alan Francis
Has "Visual Enterprise++.Net" come out yet? That would signal the pinnacle of the movement.
Its sales were stolen by Foo One Oh One In Seven Days For Dummies Ina Nutshell Super Bible Unleashed.
Enterprise, schmenterprise. I'm getting really sick of "frameworks" really fast. Here it's 2006 and it seems everything I'm supposed to get excited about is a "framework". People can't even agree on what a "framework" is [Definition Of Framework], and so the word gets applied willy-nilly as people get more and more excited. Enough with the "frameworks", already.
Funny reading this, as I was using Use Net 'links' to an ftp site to download music in 1993 (any old guitar junkies remember OLGA on nevada.edu?). So I guess peer-to-peer Internet file sharing was invented then :) I got all of the .wav's of Rush's "Counterparts" album before it was released.
I'm seeing a lot of hype about the Cell Processor here in 2005-2006.
How is it significantly different from the TMS320C80 MVP (multimedia video processor)? That MVP has been produced by TI since before 1996 (over 10 years ago). The TMS320C80 MVP includes a 32 bit RISC master processor, and 4 parallel DSP processors (64 bit instruction words, 32 bit integer units that can be used for 8 bit SIMD ops).
Why isn't Rapport's "KC256" chip getting 32 times as much press as the Cell Processor?
-- David Cary
See also Gartner's Hype Cycle www.gartner.com
See Aspect Oriented Programming, Peer To Peer Internet File Systems, Informal History Of Programming Ideas, New Tool Wish List
See original on c2.com