# Sequencing Decisions

In this study we introduce a semiparametric hazard-based duration model to predict the timing and sequence of theme park visitors’ activity choice behavior. The model is estimated on the basis of observations of consumer choices in various hypothetical theme parks. These parks are constructed by varying the absence and presence of existing and new activities within a theme park as well as their attributes: waiting time, activity duration, and location.

The semiparametric hazard model focuses on the probability that an event will start or end in a given time interval, conditioned on the fact that the event has not occurred or ended before the beginning of that time interval.

The main results of the estimated models show the shape of the distribution of the visitors during a day over the various activities in the park. Only few activity attributes, visitor and context characteristics influence the timing and sequence of the activity choices. The findings provide guidance for theme park management on how the demand for activities fluctuates during the day, and how it can be accommodated and directed.


KEMPERMAN, Astrid, BORGERS, Aloys and TIMMERMANS, Harry, 2002. A Semiparametric Hazard Model of Activity Timing and Sequencing Decisions During Visits to Theme Parks Using Experimental Design Data. Tourism Analysis. 1 January 2002. Vol. 7, no. 1, p. 1–13. DOI 10.3727/108354202108749916.

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