In contrast to the Deterrence Theory, proponents of the spiral model claim that the prescriptions associated with deterrence theory frequently lead to Vicious Cycles of reciprocated Conflict.
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ZAGARE, Frank C. and KOLGOUR, D. Marc, 1998. Deterrence theory and the spiral model revisited. Journal of Theoretical Politics. 1998. Vol. 10, no. 1, p. 59–87.
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The Spiral Model, also known as the Security Dilemma, posits that the actions of one state can cause a spiral of hostility, suspicion, and increased military build-up that leads to increased tensions and the risk of conflict. The theory argues that the actions of one state to increase its security can trigger similar actions by other states, leading to a vicious cycle of mutual insecurity. The Spiral Model asserts that even actions intended to increase security, such as increasing military capabilities or forming alliances, can be perceived as threatening by other states. This perception can then lead to countermeasures that further increase tensions and the risk of conflict.
In summary, the Deterrence Theory focuses on the use of the threat of retaliation to prevent conflict, while the Spiral Model focuses on the dynamic process by which actions intended to increase security can spiral into conflict.